Understanding Football Odds: A Beginner's Guide

Getting your Trinity Audio player ready...

When you’re diving into the world of football betting, one of the first things you’ll need to grasp is how odds work. Whether you’re placing a casual bet on your favourite team or looking to dive into more serious sports betting, understanding football odds is essential. This guide will walk you through the basics, different formats of odds, and how to interpret them to make more informed betting decisions.

Understanding Football Odds A Beginner’s Guide

What Are Football Odds?

Football odds represent the likelihood of a particular outcome happening in a football game. They also indicate how much money you can win based on the amount you bet. In simpler terms, odds are a way for bookmakers to express the probability of a specific event occurring and how much a bettor could potentially earn if their prediction is correct.

In most cases, football odds will reflect the probability of a team winning, losing, or drawing. These odds can fluctuate based on factors such as team performance, injuries, and betting market activity.

Types of Football Odds

Football odds come in different formats depending on the region or sportsbook you’re using. The three most common formats are:

Decimal Odds (European Format)

Decimal odds are one of the simplest formats to understand. In this system, the odds are displayed as a decimal number. The number represents the total return for every unit wagered, including your initial stake.

Example:

If the odds are 2.50, a $10 bet would return $25 ($10 * 2.50), which includes your initial stake of $10 and $15 in profit.

Fractional Odds (UK Format)

Fractional odds are traditional in the UK and represent the profit relative to the stake. The numerator (top number) indicates the amount of profit you can make for every unit of the stake, while the denominator (bottom number) represents the stake.

Example:

Odds of 5/1 (read as “five to one”) mean you would win $5 for every $1 you bet. So, a $10 bet would return $60 ($10 * 5 = $50 profit + $10 stake).

Moneyline Odds (American Format)

Moneyline odds are common in the United States. These odds can be either positive (+) or negative (-). Positive odds show how much profit you would make on a $100 bet, while negative odds show how much you need to bet to win $100.

Example:

+200 means that for every $100 wagered, you would win $200 if the bet is successful.
-150 means you need to bet $150 to win $100. If your bet wins, you get $250 back: your $150 stake plus $100 in profit.

How to Read Football Odds

Once you understand the basic types of odds, it’s time to learn how to interpret them in the context of football betting. Let’s break down the meaning behind odds for different types of football betting markets.

Moneyline Bet (Match Outcome)

The most common football bet is the money line bet, which is a straight wager on which team will win. There are three possible outcomes for a football game:

Home Team Victory
Away Team Victory
Draw (for certain competitions, such as football leagues with no extra time)

Example (Decimal Odds):

Home Team: 1.75
Away Team: 2.10
Draw: 3.30

In this case, a $10 bet on the home team would return $17.50 if they win (your $10 bet * 1.75 odds). A $10 bet on the away team would return $21 if they win, and a $10 bet on a draw would return $33.

Over/Under (Total Goals)

Another popular type of football bet is the Over/Under bet, where you’re betting on the total number of goals scored in a match. The bookmaker sets a “line” for the number of goals, and you can bet whether the total will be over or under that line.

Example (Fractional Odds):

Over 2.5 goals: 4/5
Under 2.5 goals: 10/11

If you bet on Over 2.5 goals at 4/5, you would win $4 for every $5 bet if more than 2 goals are scored in the match. On the other hand, betting on Under 2.5 goals at 10/11 means you would win $10 for every $11 bet if fewer than 3 goals are scored.

Asian Handicap

The Asian Handicap is a form of betting that eliminates the possibility of a draw, offering a handicap to one team to make the match more competitive from a betting standpoint. It’s widely popular for betting on football matches with a clear favourite.

Example:

Team A -1.5 (Handicap)
Team B +1.5 (Handicap)

If you bet on Team A -1.5, they must win by 2 or more goals for you to win your bet. If you bet on Team B +1.5, you win if Team B wins or draws, or if they lose by only 1 goal.

Correct Score Bet

A Correct Score bet involves predicting the exact final score of a match. This is one of the more difficult bets to predict but offers high potential returns.

Example (Moneyline Odds):

2-1 Home Win: +650
1-1 Draw: +500

A $10 bet on a 2-1 Home Win at +650 would return $75 (your $10 bet * 6.50), including your original stake. If the match ends in a 1-1 draw, a $10 bet at +500 would return $60.

How to Calculate Potential Payouts

Using Decimal Odds

To calculate your potential payout with decimal odds:

Multiply your stake by the odds.
The result is your total payout, which includes your original stake.

Example: If you bet $20 on odds of 3.00, your potential payout would be:

$20 * 3.00 = $60 This includes your $20 stake and $40 in profit.

Using Fractional Odds

To calculate your payout with fractional odds:

Multiply your stake by the numerator (top number).
Divide by the denominator (bottom number) to calculate profit.
Add your stake to the profit to get the total payout.

Example: With odds of 5/1, a $20 bet would yield:

Profit = $20 * 5 = $100
Total payout = $100 + $20 = $120

Using Moneyline Odds

For positive moneyline odds:

Multiply your stake by the odds, then divide by 100.

Example: With +150 odds, a $20 bet would yield:

$20 * 150 / 100 = $30 in profit
Total payout = $20 + $30 = $50

For negative moneyline odds:

Divide 100 by the absolute value of the odds, then multiply by your stake.

Example: With -200 odds, a $20 bet would yield:

$100 / 200 = 0.5
$20 * 0.5 = $10 in profit
Total payout = $20 + $10 = $30

Understanding Probability and Value in Football Betting

The odds you see represent the bookmaker’s calculation of the probability of an outcome. However, it’s important to remember that bookmakers also factor in their margin to ensure they make a profit. This means that the true probability might differ slightly from the implied probability suggested by the odds.

Calculating Implied Probability

To calculate the implied probability from odds, you can use the following formulas:

For Decimal Odds:
Implied Probability = 1 / Decimal Odds

Example: For odds of 2.50: Implied Probability = 1 / 2.50 = 0.40 or 40%

For Fractional Odds:
Implied Probability = Denominator / (Numerator + Denominator)

Example: For odds of 5/1: Implied Probability = 1 / (5 + 1) = 0.1667 or 16.67%

For Moneyline Odds: Positive Odds:
Implied Probability = 100 / (Odds + 100)Negative Odds:
Implied Probability = Absolute Odds / (Absolute Odds + 100)Implied Probability = 100 / (200 + 100) = 0.33 or 33.33%

For -150 odds:
Implied Probability = 150 / (150 + 100) = 0.60 or 60%

Identifying Value Bets

A value bet occurs when the bookmaker’s odds are higher than the actual probability of an event occurring. If you believe the odds represent a worse outcome than what you think is likely, you can identify a bet with value. This requires a deep understanding of the teams and factors affecting the match, along with careful analysis.

Conclusion

Understanding football odds is essential for anyone looking to place bets on football games. The different odds formats (decimal, fractional, and moneyline) are simply ways to express the same concept: the likelihood of an outcome and the potential profit you can make. By learning how to read and interpret these odds, you can make more informed decisions, increase your chances of success, and enjoy the thrill of football betting more effectively.

Whether you’re betting on the match winner, the total goals, or more complex markets like Asian handicaps or correct scores, always remember to bet responsibly and keep learning as you go.

You will find the following information useful:

Coach Factory